A Looming Crisis No One Wants in the Bathroom

Toilet paper. It’s the kind of household staple you don’t think twice about—until it’s gone. In recent weeks, American consumers have started to feel a familiar sense of dread as whispers of a potential shortage have begun to surface again. This time, it’s not a pandemic sparking the fear. It’s politics.

Former President Donald Trump’s trade war is back in the headlines, and its ripple effects are now reaching into the most unexpected corners of American life. Thanks to new tariffs impacting key global suppliers, the United States could soon face a serious toilet paper dilemma.

What’s Fueling the Worry? It Starts with Pulp

Let’s break it down. Toilet paper isn’t made out of thin air—it comes from pulp, specifically bleached hardwood pulp. And one of the biggest players in the pulp game is Suzano SA, a Brazilian company that supplies a large portion of the raw material used in American toilet paper brands.

Recently, Suzano’s CEO João Alberto de Abreu announced that the company’s exports to the U.S. have dropped a staggering 20% year-over-year. The cause? Trump’s tariffs, which are making it significantly more expensive to ship pulp to the United States. As costs climb, so does the risk to supply.

Video: Tariffs on Canadian Products Could Cause a U.S. Toilet Paper Shortage | Your Morning

How Tariffs Are Disrupting Global Trade

At first, Trump’s tariffs focused on high-value goods—think electronics and luxury imports. But those levies have expanded over time, now hitting essential commodities like pulp. The current 10% tariff is already causing headaches, and experts warn it could go higher.

Suzano isn’t alone in feeling the pressure. Their share prices have taken a hit, falling 4.3% on the São Paulo stock exchange, marking the lowest intraday level since last June. This market dip reflects broader investor anxiety over the long-term impacts of the tariffs on global trade, especially for goods many people take for granted.

The 2020 Memory Still Lingers

Remember the chaos of 2020? When toilet paper disappeared from shelves overnight, and people scrambled to hoard what they could? Analysts are now warning that we could be heading for a similar situation—not because of panic buying (yet), but because the supply chain itself is getting squeezed.

If American buyers start stockpiling in anticipation, it could accelerate the shortage. Just like in 2020, fear can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Beyond Toilet Paper: The Ripple Effect

The implications go far beyond bathrooms. Pulp isn’t only used for toilet paper—it’s also crucial for hygiene products, tissues, napkins, and even medical supplies. As Suzano’s executive Leonardo Grimaldi put it, “The entire pulp industry is entering a period of instability.”

So, what happens when pulp gets pricey or scarce? Everyday essentials may become more expensive or harder to find. Consumers could end up paying significantly more for basic necessities, and smaller manufacturers might not survive the economic strain.

Economic Experts Are Ringing the Alarm

Economist Torsten Slok isn’t mincing words. He predicts that if trade tensions escalate, the United States could slide into a recession by summer 2025. Apollo Global Management echoes this sentiment, warning that shelves could be empty by mid-May if tariffs keep rising.

That’s not just bad news for consumers. Retailers, truckers, warehouse workers, and logistics firms are all bracing for the fallout. If shipping delays and product shortages take hold, layoffs may soon follow—further straining the economy.

Video: Trump’s Trade War Meltdown: Tariffs, Tantrums, and Toilet Paper Panic!

Is This Just Another Political Tug-of-War?

At its core, the situation reflects how political decisions at the highest levels can hit ordinary people in the most unexpected ways. What began as a trade war aimed at rival economies is now causing tremors in U.S. households, supermarkets, and supply chains.

Trump’s strategy was to protect American industries from unfair foreign competition. But when those foreign suppliers happen to be essential partners for basic goods, the plan can backfire—quickly and painfully.

Why This Isn’t Just a Brazil Problem

Although Brazil is the focal point for now, the U.S. also imports pulp from other countries like Canada, Chile, and Sweden. But with global trade slowing and prices climbing, there’s no easy fix. If more suppliers face similar tariff hikes or logistical issues, the pinch could become a full-on crisis.

And let’s not forget the shipping bottlenecks still affecting ports and cargo routes globally. Even if supply exists, getting it into the U.S. is becoming more expensive and more complicated.

What Can Consumers Expect Next?

Right now, toilet paper is still on the shelves. But if current trends continue, that could change fast. Retailers might implement purchase limits again. Prices could rise. And yes, panic buying could return.

The smart move? Stay informed. Watch for signals from major retailers and suppliers. And resist the urge to hoard—because that’s when the real trouble begins.

Conclusion: The Bottom Line on This Paper Problem

While it may sound ridiculous at first glance, a toilet paper shortage is no laughing matter. With Trump’s tariffs driving up pulp costs and reducing supply, American consumers are facing the very real threat of another disruption—this time born from trade policies, not a health crisis.

The situation is a stark reminder that global trade isn’t just about tech and cars—it touches every part of our lives, including the most basic essentials. As tensions grow and tariffs climb, we may all need to brace for impact—in the bathroom and beyond.